Verdict
Three questions, three answers. The rest of the page is the receipts.
Scoreboard by sub-avatar bin
Each winner assigned to one bin by what its hook or image callout names first. Bar = share of winner spend. Amber is her side of Independence, blue is his.
Winners by bin
What each ad names first (its Core 5 lead item), the activator it runs on, and the numbers. Statics and natives together; format is a tag.
Blame-removal body · five images
| ad | lead item on the image | activator | spend | purch | cpa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
staticslop 7You shouldn't have to wake them five times. | Behavior (she is the alarm, five trips) | C in the body, A on the image | $13,633 | 464 | $29.38 |
staticslop 9The calmer way to wake an ADHD teen. No yelling down the hall. | Desire (calmer mornings) | C body, A image | $7,808 | 255 | $30.62 |
staticslop 4When ADHD mornings need a different kind of alarm. Sound gets ignored. | Experience stated as mechanism | C | $2,916 | 116 | $25.14 |
| staticslop 5 · 6 · 7 copy 2 (Graveyard) | same body, images not re-read | C | $1,390 | 53 | $26.23 |
Three image callouts, three categories, all within $5 CPA. The body is doing the work. Credit Angle 1 (blame removal, Family activated by guilt/shame) and treat the image as SA1 texture, not as the SA1 test.
SA3 · The Chauffeur
| ad | lead item | activator | spend | purch | cpa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nativeimg-c1-dressed-asleepv10 body · photo of a girl asleep in her clothes | Experience (slept through, dressed) + Demographic (college) | B | $8,094 | 155 | $52.22 |
nativefable-v10-zero-missed-8amsShe did not miss a single 8am. Three years ago she missed first period 22 times. | Experience inverted into proof + Demographic | B answered, C beat (the school meeting) | $4,364 | 131 | $33.31 |
natives2-a scholarship pair (dusk uniform · boy dressed asleep)A kid can almost lose a scholarship without his grades ever dropping. | Experience (attendance review) + Demographic | B stake, C beat ("a voice I hate") | $2,188 | 49 | $44.65 |
staticindependent slop 13If you're still the one responsible for getting your teen out of bed at 16, you don't have a routine. You have a dependency. | Behavior + Demographic (16) | B | $691 | 24 | $28.80 |
nativev10r-rip-alarm-stackv10 body · alarm-stack image | Experience (the alarm stack) | B | $294 | 7 | $41.99 |
nativefable2-b08 summer school (retest)He passed the class. He just wasn't awake for it. | Experience (attendance points) + Demographic | B | retest | · | · |
SA1 · The 5:30 Supervisor
| ad | lead item | activator | spend | purch | cpa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nativetp723-01-coffee-shop-exileI leave my own house at 7am and sit in a coffee shop so I don't have to fight my son awake. | Behavior (she leaves to dodge the fight) | A dread | $3,270 | 79 | $41.39 |
statics2-f-img2-monitor-shelfThere is a baby monitor in my 16 year old's bedroom… so I can hear whether he's moving without climbing the stairs a fourth time. | Behavior + Demographic (16) | A dread | $123 | 6 | $20.44 |
Helplessness · activator D
| ad | lead item | activator | spend | purch | cpa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nativetp723-07-freezer-marblesThere is a gallon ziplock of marbles in my freezer, and every parent of a deep sleeper knows exactly what it's for. | Behavior (keeps a plan she will not use) | D, with A | $1,206 | 37 | $32.59 |
nativev11-a-unassigned-hourFour specialists. Nobody was in charge of 6:30 in the morning. | Experience (the care plan has no owner) | D | $136 | 5 | $27.30 |
Offer-aware · no activator
| ad | lead item | activator | spend | purch | cpa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
staticoffer ad copy 2 + copy 3Wake them. Not the whole house. If your teen sleeps through alarms, misses the bus, or needs you to drag them out of bed… | Experience (sleeps through, misses the bus) | none | $3,265 | 115 | $28.39 |
Outside the ask: charswap-G-m1-kitchen (video, "wakes him for school or you don't pay") was promoted to SCALE 8-28 on a guarantee hook with no Evolve item. r2-d2-roommate (6 purchases, $19) was not classified; its body was not pulled.
Which core avatar each sub-avatar belongs to
In Evolve, a core avatar is a desire statement and a sub-avatar is one experience, one emotion and the behaviors that follow. Two core avatars carry every winner. Both are the same mother; what differs is whose independence the ad sells.
- SA1 · The 5:30 Supervisordread · behavior lead. coffee shop exile, baby monitor. Plus slop 7's "five times" image if you credit the image.$3.4k · 85
$39.92 - Blame-removal body (Angle 1)Family activated by guilt/shame in the opener, her independence in the close ("stop being the morning manager", "house quiet before 8").$25.7k · 888
$29.00 - Helplessness (activator D)marbles, the unassigned hour. The resident state under every sub-avatar; converts quietly under any lead.$1.3k · 42
$31.95 - Offer-aware"Not the whole house." The quiet-house after-image, sold to warm traffic.$3.3k · 115
$28.39 - SA2 · The Apology Momguilt · emotion lead. The only sub-avatar under this core that has never been the hook.unrun
- SA3 · The Chauffeurfear · experience lead · high-schooler. The 9-03 doc filed this under "calmer mornings" as calm-as-evidence. Every one of its winners sells his independence, so it lives here by receipts.$15.6k · 366
$42.71 - College send-off (hub lane)v10 family: the retrospective proof. Not an Evolve card yet; it is SA3 after the outcome.$12.8k · 293
$43.52 - Scholarship / attendance (Angles 2, 3)SA3 with a verified rung-3 stake. Thinnest receipts, highest stakes.$2.2k · 49
$44.65
Every winner is under core mom (The Mom, parent buyer). Sub-lanes touched: parent-adhd-teen (proven), parent-teen-deep-sleeper (the offer ad), college-sendoff (v10 family, still marked testing). No winner from adult-self, partner or deaf-hoh in the 30d list.
SA3 was scoped under the "calmer mornings" core avatar. Its winners (v10, scholarship, independent slop 13) never close on a calm house; they close on a kid who got up alone. Move SA3 under the independence core, or accept that the calmer-mornings core has one tested sub-avatar (SA1) and one unrun (SA2).
The theme
Four patterns hold across every winner. None of them is a format.
Her independence bins (blame-removal, SA1, helplessness, offer) total $33.7k / 1,130 purchases / $29.86. His independence (SA3) totals $15.6k / 366 / $42.71. Same mother, same product; the ad that hands her the morning converts 30% cheaper than the ad that hands him his future. Volume without margin is the SA3 pattern: img-c1 at $52 is the single biggest spender on the board.
"Wake them five times." "Still the one responsible at 16." "Sit in a coffee shop." "Keep the bag of marbles." "Baby monitor instead of a fourth trip." Every cheap winner names something she does. Experience leads win only when the experience is a school consequence (22 missed first periods, attendance review, summer school). Desire leads win once (slop 9). Emotion as the lead item: zero winners.
Every dread/behavior winner names a wake-up scene: five times, fight him awake, screaming up the stairs, the fourth trip. None carries SA1's actual experience item (side quests, "his brain shuts off the second he wakes up", the rest of the morning). The 9-02 ruling bans the scene, so the winning shape and the new doctrine point at different mornings. The rest-of-morning lane has zero winners: untested, not falsified.
No SA3 winner runs on bare daily lateness. Each one carries a school consequence (the meeting, the letter, the scholarship, summer school) and a demographic marker (16, freshman, college, the dorm). "Late daily with ninety minutes" as a stand-alone experience is unrun.
The slop family is one bin, not five. Angle 1 is the constant and it prints at $25 to $31 under three different image callouts. The account's largest winner is a Family-activated blame-removal body wearing an SA1 image. Credit the body.slop 4 / 7 / 9: $25.14 / $29.38 / $30.62 CPA on 116 / 464 / 255 purchases
What has no winner because it has never run
Starved is not falsified. These bins have zero live receipts.
| bin | what would run there | status |
|---|---|---|
| SA2 · The Apology Mom | Guilt for the anger as the hook ("Mom who yelled at your ADHD kid this morning: it wasn't you"). Guilt is in three winning bodies as a beat, never in a hook. | unrun |
| SA1 rest-of-morning experience | "Side quests", "his brain shuts off the second he wakes up", "twenty repeated instructions". Every SA1 winner is a wake-up scene instead. | unrun |
| SA3 bare lateness | "Late daily with ninety minutes" without a school consequence attached. | unrun |
| Emotion as lead item, any activator | A hook that names the feeling first ("if you dread tomorrow morning before tonight is over"). | unrun |
| Separate angles from the 9-03 doc | Sibling tax, different kid for the first hour, time blindness, standing and staring. | unrun |
Method and caveats
- Winner set. Every ad with ≥5 purchases in the Meta 30d ad-level pull to 9-02 (77 ads), plus 8-28 SCALE promotions. 26 ads qualified; 23 are statics or natives.
- Lead item. Read off the image callout for statics and the first two lines for natives, at full size, one bin per ad. Where a body is shared across images (slop family, v10 family) the body's bin is named and the image's callout is noted separately.
- Bins. Sub-avatars SA1/SA2/SA3 from the 9-03 Evolve build; activators A/B/C/D and Angles 1 to 8 from the 9-02 lock-in; hub core avatars from
scripts/roadmap/taxonomy.json. - Not read. slop 5 and 6 images (same body, kept in the family bin). r2-d2-roommate body. offer-ad image. Video winners listed but not binned.
- CPA is lifetime-30d, mixed campaigns. Graveyard ads run under a $35 cap, so their CPA is partly a selection effect (Fish 8-28 ruling). Compare within bin, not across campaign.